Heat pump vs gas heating cost in Virginia

$51 a year saved by heating a typical Virginia home with a heat pump instead of a gas furnace.

A typical home here burns about 369 therms of gas a year for heat, about $627 at the national average of $1.70/therm. A heat pump would use about 3,283 kWh instead, $576 at 17.55¢/kWh. Electricity would have to pass 19.1¢/kWh before gas became the cheaper way to heat.

Prices updated October 2026 from EIA, AAA and BLS data.

How Virginia compares

Ranked by yearly saving against gas, Virginia is 29th of 51. At U.S. average figures a heat pump saves $27 a year. Virginia has the 32nd cheapest residential electricity of the 50 states and DC, near the middle, at 17.55¢/kWh, 4% below the U.S. average of 18.31¢.

With an estimated 4,100 heating degree days a year, winters here are moderate, and the calculator uses a seasonal COP of 2.8.

Against propane the heat pump saves $440 a year, against heating oil it saves $961 a year, and against electric baseboard heat it saves $1,037 a year.

Heating now	Now, per year	Heat pump	Difference
Natural gas furnace	$627	$576	$51
Propane furnace	$1,016	$575	$440
Oil furnace	$1,537	$576	$961
Electric baseboard	$1,613	$576	$1,037

Four of its six neighbors do better against gas: Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia, led by Tennessee at $211 a year saved.

State	Electricity	Saving vs gas a year
Tennessee	13.71¢	$211
Kentucky	13.81¢	$182
North Carolina	15.16¢	$159
West Virginia	15.78¢	$131
Virginia	17.55¢	$51
Maryland	21.41¢	−$83
District of Columbia	25.21¢	−$205

More for Virginia

EV charging cost in Virginia vs gas: an EV saves $1,110 a year on fuel.
Solar payback in Virginia: a typical system pays back in 12.6 years.

What these numbers assume

A heating load estimated from about 4,100 heating degree days a year: 369 therms of gas, 403 gallons of propane, 283 gallons of oil or 9,193 kWh of baseboard heat.
Natural gas at $1.70/therm, the U.S. city average for September 2026. Gas prices vary a lot by state and utility, so enter the price per therm from your bill.
Propane at $2.52 and heating oil at $5.43 a gallon, EIA forecasts for winter 2026–27.
Furnaces 85% efficient (oil 80%), and a heat pump with a seasonal COP of 2.8.
No federal tax credit: Section 25C ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025.

Change any of them in the calculator above to match your own bills. The formulas are on the main heat pump calculator.

Sources

Electricity price: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data).
Natural gas: BLS U.S. city average, September 2026.
Propane and heating oil: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook winter forecast, October 2026.
Heating degree days: MeterMath rounded estimate for the state.
Tax credit status: Public Law 119-21.