MeterMath

Heat pump California

Heat pump vs gas heating cost in California

$157 a year more to heat a typical California home with a heat pump than with a gas furnace.

A typical home here burns about 171 therms of gas a year for heat, about $291 at the national average of $1.70/therm. A heat pump would use about 1,331 kWh instead, $447 at 33.61¢/kWh. Electricity would have to fall to 21.8¢/kWh, or gas rise in price, before the heat pump became the cheaper way to heat.

Prices updated October 2026 from EIA, AAA and BLS data.

How you heat now
therms/yr
 
$/therm
 
¢/kWh
 
Efficiency, upfront cost and rebates
%
Older furnaces 78 to 80, new 90 to 97.
 
$
Heat pumps also replace your AC.
$
State, utility or HEAR rebates.

How California compares

Ranked by yearly saving against gas, California is 39th of 51. At U.S. average figures a heat pump saves $27 a year. California has the 2nd most expensive residential electricity of the 50 states and DC at 33.61¢/kWh, 84% above the U.S. average of 18.31¢.

Winters here are mild, with an estimated 1,900 heating degree days a year, so the calculator uses a seasonal COP of 3.2: each kWh of electricity delivers 3.2 kWh of heat.

Against propane the heat pump saves $24 a year, against heating oil it saves $265 a year, and against electric baseboard heat it saves $984 a year.

Heating nowNow, per yearHeat pumpDifference
Natural gas furnace$291$447−$157
Propane furnace$471$447$24
Oil furnace$711$447$265
Electric baseboard$1,432$447$984

Every neighboring state does better against gas, led by Nevada at $191 a year saved.

StateElectricitySaving vs gas a year
Nevada12.77¢$191
Oregon15.97¢$113
Arizona15.38¢$63
Hawaii48.00¢−$102
California33.61¢−$157

More for California

What these numbers assume

  • A heating load estimated from about 1,900 heating degree days a year: 171 therms of gas, 187 gallons of propane, 131 gallons of oil or 4,260 kWh of baseboard heat.
  • Natural gas at $1.70/therm, the U.S. city average for September 2026. Gas prices vary a lot by state and utility, so enter the price per therm from your bill.
  • Propane at $2.52 and heating oil at $5.43 a gallon, EIA forecasts for winter 2026–27.
  • Furnaces 85% efficient (oil 80%), and a heat pump with a seasonal COP of 3.2.
  • No federal tax credit: Section 25C ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025.

Change any of them in the calculator above to match your own bills. The formulas are on the main heat pump calculator.

Sources

  • Electricity price: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data).
  • Natural gas: BLS U.S. city average, September 2026.
  • Propane and heating oil: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook winter forecast, October 2026.
  • Heating degree days: MeterMath rounded estimate for the state.
  • Tax credit status: Public Law 119-21.