MeterMath

Heat pump Arizona

Heat pump vs gas heating cost in Arizona

$63 a year saved by heating a typical Arizona home with a heat pump instead of a gas furnace.

A typical home here burns about 126 therms of gas a year for heat, about $214 at the national average of $1.70/therm. A heat pump would use about 981 kWh instead, $151 at 15.38¢/kWh. Electricity would have to pass 21.8¢/kWh before gas became the cheaper way to heat.

Prices updated October 2026 from EIA, AAA and BLS data.

How you heat now
therms/yr
 
$/therm
 
¢/kWh
 
Efficiency, upfront cost and rebates
%
Older furnaces 78 to 80, new 90 to 97.
 
$
Heat pumps also replace your AC.
$
State, utility or HEAR rebates.

How Arizona compares

Ranked by yearly saving against gas, Arizona is 28th of 51. At U.S. average figures a heat pump saves $27 a year. Arizona has the 19th cheapest residential electricity of the 50 states and DC, near the middle, at 15.38¢/kWh, 16% below the U.S. average of 18.31¢.

Winters here are mild, with an estimated 1,400 heating degree days a year, so the calculator uses a seasonal COP of 3.2: each kWh of electricity delivers 3.2 kWh of heat.

Against propane the heat pump saves $197 a year, against heating oil it saves $375 a year, and against electric baseboard heat it saves $332 a year.

Heating nowNow, per yearHeat pumpDifference
Natural gas furnace$214$151$63
Propane furnace$348$151$197
Oil furnace$527$151$375
Electric baseboard$483$151$332

Four of its five neighbors do better against gas: Nevada, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, led by Utah at $268 a year saved.

StateElectricitySaving vs gas a year
Utah13.12¢$268
Nevada12.77¢$191
New Mexico16.09¢$101
Colorado17.00¢$101
Arizona15.38¢$63
California33.61¢−$157

More for Arizona

What these numbers assume

  • A heating load estimated from about 1,400 heating degree days a year: 126 therms of gas, 138 gallons of propane, 97 gallons of oil or 3,139 kWh of baseboard heat.
  • Natural gas at $1.70/therm, the U.S. city average for September 2026. Gas prices vary a lot by state and utility, so enter the price per therm from your bill.
  • Propane at $2.52 and heating oil at $5.43 a gallon, EIA forecasts for winter 2026–27.
  • Furnaces 85% efficient (oil 80%), and a heat pump with a seasonal COP of 3.2.
  • No federal tax credit: Section 25C ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025.

Change any of them in the calculator above to match your own bills. The formulas are on the main heat pump calculator.

Sources

  • Electricity price: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data).
  • Natural gas: BLS U.S. city average, September 2026.
  • Propane and heating oil: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook winter forecast, October 2026.
  • Heating degree days: MeterMath rounded estimate for the state.
  • Tax credit status: Public Law 119-21.