Heat pump vs gas heating cost in Vermont

$517 a year more to heat a typical Vermont home with a heat pump than with a gas furnace.

A typical home here burns about 675 therms of gas a year for heat, about $1,148 at the national average of $1.70/therm. A heat pump would use about 7,007 kWh instead, $1,664 at 23.75¢/kWh. Electricity would have to fall to 16.4¢/kWh, or gas rise in price, before the heat pump became the cheaper way to heat.

Prices updated October 2026 from EIA, AAA and BLS data.

How Vermont compares

Ranked by yearly saving against gas, Vermont is 47th of 51. At U.S. average figures a heat pump saves $27 a year. Vermont has the 40th cheapest residential electricity of the 50 states and DC, near the middle, at 23.75¢/kWh, 30% above the U.S. average of 18.31¢.

Vermont is a cold-climate state, with an estimated 7,500 heating degree days a year, so the calculator uses a lower seasonal COP of 2.4. Cold-climate heat pumps rated for low temperatures can do better.

Against propane the heat pump saves $196 a year, against heating oil it saves $1,148 a year, and against electric baseboard heat it saves $2,330 a year.

Heating now	Now, per year	Heat pump	Difference
Natural gas furnace	$1,148	$1,664	−$517
Propane furnace	$1,860	$1,664	$196
Oil furnace	$2,813	$1,665	$1,148
Electric baseboard	$3,994	$1,664	$2,330

One of its three neighbors comes closer to breaking even with gas: New York at $467 a year more than gas.

State	Electricity	Saving vs gas a year
New York	29.90¢	−$467
Vermont	23.75¢	−$517
Massachusetts	30.49¢	−$538
New Hampshire	26.60¢	−$659

More for Vermont

EV charging cost in Vermont vs gas: an EV saves $897 a year on fuel.
Solar payback in Vermont: a typical system pays back in 10.4 years.

What these numbers assume

A heating load estimated from about 7,500 heating degree days a year: 675 therms of gas, 738 gallons of propane, 518 gallons of oil or 16,816 kWh of baseboard heat.
Natural gas at $1.70/therm, the U.S. city average for September 2026. Gas prices vary a lot by state and utility, so enter the price per therm from your bill.
Propane at $2.52 and heating oil at $5.43 a gallon, EIA forecasts for winter 2026–27.
Furnaces 85% efficient (oil 80%), and a heat pump with a seasonal COP of 2.4.
No federal tax credit: Section 25C ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025.

Change any of them in the calculator above to match your own bills. The formulas are on the main heat pump calculator.

Sources

Electricity price: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data).
Natural gas: BLS U.S. city average, September 2026.
Propane and heating oil: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook winter forecast, October 2026.
Heating degree days: MeterMath rounded estimate for the state.
Tax credit status: Public Law 119-21.